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A wild start

That was a bit of a wild one. The Wings came out with guns blazing in the first and chased an allegedly ill Jose Theodore in the second.

Then the Avalanche woke up and remembered they’re in the second round. They were helped along by a couple gifts from a brain-cramping Red Wings defense and made it an interesting game down to the final minute.

After 20, it looked like the Wings might run away with this series. After 60, it looks like it’s going to be very tight, just like expected. And that was without Peter Forsberg in the Colorado lineup.

The Wings will need to make better decisions defensively in Game 2, that’s for sure.

BtJ liveblog here.

More to come tomorrow.

Round 2 Series Preview: 1 Detroit vs. 6 Colorado

Update (6:47 PM): The guys over at the FanHouse have posted their second round roundtable in which the first topic of conversation is the Wings/Avalanche series. - Matt

Update (3:23 PM): The Denver Post’s Adrian Dater has some pre-game comments here. - Matt

Update (3:07 PM): IwoCPO has keys to Game 1 here. - Matt

Update (3:00 PM): Tapeleg has a guide to the Avalanche for “temp fans” over at Jerseys and Hockey Love. - Matt

Update (2:10 PM): With Christy Hammond working the game for the Wings, Joe Hass will liveblog the game at Behind the Jersey again. - Matt

Update (1:15 PM): Ansar Khan has the projected lines and pairings for the Avalanche:

Wolski-Sakic-Brunette
Stastny-Forsberg-Hejduk
Smyth-Arnason-Jones
McLeod-Guite-Laperriere

Sauer-Foote
Salei-Leopold
Hannan-Liles

Also, Eric McErlain has posted a preview of the series at the Fanhouse. - Matt

Update (11:35 AM): Bruce MacLeod reports that Brad Stuart will not be in the lineup tonight. His wife has given birth to their second child (Logan Michael), but he won’t make it back to Detroit until later today. MacLeod says he will skate tomorrow and will play Saturday.

Andreas Lilja will fill in for Stuart tonight. It looks like he’ll be the only change to the lineup:

Datsyuk-Zetterberg-Holmstrom
Franzen-Filppula-Samuelsson
Hudler-Draper-Cleary
Drake-Helm-McCarty

Lidstrom-Rafalski
Kronwall-Lilja
Lebda-Chelios

- Matt

Tonight is Game 1 of Series “K” between the Detroit Red Wings and the Colorado Avalanche.

Playoff History

In five series between these two teams historically, Colorado has the edge 3-2, with a 17-13 record through 30 games. The teams last met in the postseason in the 2002 Western Conference Finals. The Wings came out on top in that series, winning in seven.

Regular Season Series

The Wings swept the season series 4-0 with wins December 27th (4-2), January 8th (1-0), February 1st (2-0), and February 18th (4-0).

The Avalanche

Colorado finished the regular season 44-31-7. Their 95 points were good for sixth place in the West.

They faced Minnesota in the first round. The first three games went to overtime, with the Wild taking a 2-1 series lead going into Game 4. The Avs then came back to win the series in six.

Forwards

Joe Sakic leads the forward corps in playoff scoring with 6 points (2G, 4A). Andrew Brunette, Wojtek Wolski, and Peter Forsberg each have five. Milan Hejduk and Ryan Smyth are not far behind with 4 and 3 points respectively.

There’s no denying that the Avs have a lot of skill up front. Forsberg proved the doubters wrong by notching 13 assists in nine regular season games. His production obviously tailed off a bit in the playoffs thus far, but he’s still looking better than a lot of people expected. Sakic remains a threat if for no other reason than that he’s got a wicked wrist shot and is one of the great leaders from his generation remaining in the game. Wolski is a shifty guy and Stastny is a stud, though his one playoff goal is a little underwhelming. Hejduk, Brunette and Smyth remain scoring threats. This is quite the solid group.

Defense

Trade deadline acquisition Ruslan Salei leads the Colorado blueline in points with four. He is joined by a strong defensive corps that includes Adam Foote, JM Liles, Kurt Sauer, Scott Hannan, Jordan Leopold, and Jeff Finger. Not as offensively-minded as the Wings’ defense, these guys are a tough and formidable group. As much as the Foote acquistion was derided and laughed at (guilty), it’s paid off as the defense has solidified.

Goaltending

Jose Theodore is the man in Denver now and posted a .940 save-percentage and 1.88 GAA in the first round (against a Lemaire-coached Wild team, mind you). He’ll be tough to beat.

Thoughts

It’s been remarked that the lineup the Wings will face tonight is a much-improved version of that which they faced during the regular season. That is definitely true. However, the Wings are also a different team than they were the last time these two teams faced off.

During the last two meetings, the Wings were without Niklas Kronwall and had not yet acquired Brad Stuart. During the fourth game, Nick Lidstrom was injured while the team was already without Dan Cleary and Brian Rafalski in addition to Kronwall. Those are significant and make it difficult to gauge this series. It should be remembered, though, that the Wings won that fourth game in the midst of their terrible February slump.

In my mind, the biggest addition to the Avs’ roster is Peter Forsberg. There have been some speedbumps along the way, but he’s healthy and producing. His performance in this series will have a lot to say in how it goes. He’s historically a Red Wings killer and is sure to elevate his play in this round. The Wings must shut him down and that’s going to be quite the job for the player who once was compared to the famous Swedish forward: Henrik Zetterberg.

The Wings will have to play their game to perfection because the Avs can skate with them as well as any other team in the League. Their secondary forwards will need to build on their first round performances in order to match the Avs’ deep forward corps. Players like Tomas Holmstrom, Kris Draper, Darren McCarty and Dallas Drake will need to pound Forsberg, Hejduk, Stastny, Wolski, Smyth, and Company whenever they have the opportunity. Forsberg, in particular, can be goaded into visciousness and that should translate into power play opportunities.

The Wings beat a hot goaltender in the first round, but they’ll be up against one with a lot more experience this time around. Theodore is the other key to this series. He’s not going to be rattled easily and will be a definite challenge. Chris Osgood will need to match him save for save and more.

Although the rivalry is nothing it used to be, you can bet that emotions will run high. With both teams bringing back relics from the past, old memories will be stirred and bad blood will come to the surface pretty quickly.

Both teams go into this round knowing that they won’t have it easy and that they’ll have to come out firing on all cylinders. That should make for a great, tight series.

Links

James Mirtle: Round 2 picks

George Malik - “preview-a-palooza

Abel to Yzerman: “Oh, There Will Be Blood

No Pun Intended: series preview

Colorado Avalanche Talk: series preview

Jibblescribbits: series preview

Game 6: Wings 3, Predators 0

Update (12:25 PM): IwoCPO’s thoughts on the series are here and George Malik’s wrap-up is here. - Matt

The Detroit Red Wings advanced to the Western Conference Semifinals with yesterday’s 3-0 Game 6 win over the Nashville Predators. Their second-round opponent will be determined by the result of tomorrow night’s Game 7 between the San Jose Sharks and the Calgary Flames. If the Flames can win on the road, they’ll face the Wings next. If the Sharks pull out a win, they’ll face Dallas and Colorado will face Detroit.

The Wings put on a strong performance in the clinching game. They weathered a major first period storm put on by the Predators and gradually took control of the game. The opening frame was just about all action, with the teams trading chances up and down the ice. Both goalies looked very good. Detroit had a tendency to turn the puck over in their own zone during this period, which made things interesting for Chris Osgood.

The second period was more settled, but still had its moments excitement. One such moment that stuck out was the Predators exploitation of a bad line change around the 8:00 mark. A Brett Lebda turnover at center led to Rich Peverley outmuscling Darren Helm at the Detroit blueline and breaking in on Osgood alone. He lost control of the puck in open ice, however, which was more a demonstration of the poor quality of the ice surface than any knock against him.

The Wings went on the penalty kill at 13:37. Seven seconds later, they scored a shorthanded goal to make it 1-0. The goal came just after a faceoff at center. Nick Lidstrom received the puck from Henrik Zetterberg behind the red line and sent in a medium-strength shot that bounced in front of Dan Ellis in the slot and went in over his shoulder. It was definitely a tough break for the rookie goaltender, but a great one of the Wings. They went on to kill off a critical 5-on-3 following Kris Draper penalty at 14:43.

To the Predators credit, their play only dropped a little after that. They certainly didn’t give up after what could have been a backbreaking sequence of events.

Toward the end of the period, Pavel Datsyuk carried the puck into the zone and drove to the net like a much larger man. He got off a backhand shot and ended up barreling into Ellis as he lost an edge, knocking the net off. It seemed like a pretty straightforward play, but there was a bit of a delay as it was reviewed to make sure the puck didn’t go into the net. In the end, they made the right call: no goal.

The Wings extended their lead at 3:52 of the third with a goal from Jiri Hudler. The play began with Darren Helm carrying it into the zone on the left wing. Darren McCarty went up the middle toward the net, drawing David Legwand into Ryan Suter and leaving Hudler free as the trailer. Helm slid the puck across and Hudler unleashed a rocket that beat Ellis from 43 feet out. It was a well-deserved reward for the fourth line’s hard work throughout the game. Unfortunately, they hardly saw the ice for the rest of the game after that.

Detroit didn’t let off the gas, but had a definite defensive mindset after that. The Predators continued to come at them until the very end of the game, but the Wings limited them to just seven shots for all that. Nashville would gain the zone and set up a play that would only be broken up by a well-placed Detroit stick or skate, even if only at the last second. If a shot did get through, Chris Osgood made the save.

Late in the period, Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, and Tomas Holmstrom wrought havoc in the Nashville zone, culminating in Datsyuk ringing a shot off the crossbar after forcing Ellis down and out.

Ellis was pulled with about a minute and a half remaining and Nashville put on a good amount of pressure, but as time wound down, it was evident that a comeback was not going to happen. Brian Rafalski finished it off when he pulled down a shoot-in attempt up the middle and put in the empty net from 134 feet.

The Nashville crowd cheered the Predators all through the period, down to the buzzer, and through the handshake. Regardless of the reality of the lack of support for the Predators state-wide, there is no doubt that the folks at the Sommet Center are high on their team.

Darren Helm and Dallas Drake both had strong games. Helm will be pushed out when Kirk Maltby (hamstring) returns, but he’s a great guy to have waiting on the sidelines in case of injury. Drake, as the NBC crew says, just needs to fine-tune his radar and he’ll be laying people out left and right.

The usual suspects, Holmstrom, Datsyuk, and Zetterberg, looked good. I thought Brad Stuart looked as good as he has since returning from his injury. Brian Rafalski finally looks like a playoff veteran. Niklas Kronwall had another big open ice hit. His reputation is developing as he starts playing like he did in Grand Rapids.

The Wings escaped the first round in good shape: no major injuries, no massive travel miles, and no Game 7. They also seem to be hitting their stride and should be ready to handle whoever gets thrown at them.

Links

Highlights

No Pun Intended

Behind the Jersey

Round One done

Quick thoughts:

Osgood made the decision to play him look better with every save.

Darren Helm is a keeper.

Darren McCarty’s comeback has paid off in spades.

Dallas Drake is a wrecking ball.

It was good to see the Wings weather the early storm and come back strong for a pretty complete game. Their third period performance was masterful.

Kudos to the Predators for never giving up, even after the Lidstrom goal and the failed 5-on-3.

My condolences to Preds fans, who showed their support loudly throughout the game as well as after it.

More coming in the morning.

Game 6: @ Nashville, 3:00 ET

Update (2:41 PM): The official blog contradicts Khan and says that Legwand will be a game-time decision after he goes through warmups. - Matt

Update (2:35 PM): Ansar Khan reports that Jason Arnott will sit out today with a concussion. David Legwand, on the other hand, will play. - Matt

Update (11:07 PM): Behind the Jersey liveblog is here and PredJoe has pregame thoughts here. - Matt

This afternoon is the sixth game of the Western Conference Quartefinal series between the Detroit Red Wings and the Nashville Predators. The Wings lead the series 3-2, having won each of their home games (3-1, 4-2, 2-1 OT). The Predators won Games 3 and 4 (5-3, 3-2).

Facing elimination today, the Predators must win and force a Game 7. Some keys to the game for the Preds:

Forecheck hard. In order to disrupt the Wings’ puck possession game, they’ll need to hit it where it starts: the breakout. If the Preds can throw Detroit’s defensemen off with an aggressive forecheck, they’ll breakup the outlet process. Of course, if they get caught deep, it will backfire on them.

Ride roughshod. The Wings are no longer a stereotypically soft team. They do, however, get a little rattled when met with overly physical and just plain nasty hockey. If they are goaded into trying to return the favor, they’ll get off their game even more.

Stay out of the box. How this will work with the second key, I don’t know, but they need to stay out of the box.

Dan Ellis. He has to keep his rebounds down and his focus up. Another performance like Friday night’s and he’ll put his team in a position to pull out a win.

It looks like the Predators may still be without Jason Arnott (”flu”) and David Legwand (bruised foot).

For the Wings, this is a must-win game as well. Going to Game 7 is definitely not something anyone on that side of the ice wants to see happen. Some keys to the game for Detroit:

Score early. And not just once. Take the crowd out of it and the wind out of the Predators sails.

Go to the net. That’s how they’ll accomplish key one. Too many long and unscreened shots will result in too many easy saves for Dan Ellis. They have to buzz the net whenever they can.

Puck movement. With the Predators on the hunt physically, fast and accurate puck movement will be essential.

Keep the foot on the gas. No letting up at any point throughout the game. They need to be as close to perfect as possible.

No lineup changes for Detroit are expected.

The Wings are in a position here to move on to the second round. They even have a possible opponent lined up. They can’t think about that, however. The Predators are still between them and the Semifinals and the Predators have shown that they aren’t about to go away. A Red Wing loss today and this is anybody’s series Tuesday night.

Game 5: Wings 2, Predators 1 (OT)

Update (12:17 PM): Here’s the game winner:

Look for Filppula’s reaction to the goal on the long view replay. - Matt

The Wings got something of the statement game they were looking for last night, though you wouldn’t know it by the score. By a rough estimation, they controled the puck for 50 minutes of regulation in Game 5 and peppered Dan Ellis with 54 shots.

The game wasn’t perfect, however.

Some thoughts:

… The Wings had the strong start we were looking for, though they only managed to put one of 17 first period shots past Ellis.

… Valtteri Filppula’s goal at 4:20 of the first kicked off a strong game for the young Finn. He was one of the three heroes of the overtime period with his great backchecking leading to the turnover that started Johan Franzen’s breakaway.

… The Wings needed composure last night and they had it. They could have easily been devastated after Radek Bonk scored at 19:16 of the third, but they kept their heads up and looked determined to pull out a win, though there was no hiding the disappointment in Henrik Zetterberg’s voice during the third intermission.

… Speaking of disappointment, it was also evident in Ken Daniels’ voice when he made the call on the Bonk goal. I obviously can’t blame him. That came as a shock, though there was little the Wings could do about it. The Predators saw their moment and pounced. It was exactly what I was afraid of all game.

… I give Nashville credit for keeping their celebration low-key on the tying goal. They obviously realized how fortunate they were to be in that position at all, having had their rear ends handed to them up and down the ice all night.

… Chris Osgood only faced 21 shots. A number of them were quality scoring chances, however, and he really came up big. For all the criticisms leveled at him over the years, you can see how Wings fans have embraced him like they’ve never come to embrace Dominik Hasek. The “Ozzie! Ozzie!” chant went up more than a few times last night.

As a fan who spent most of the game in a state of high tension, seeing Osgood’s calm confidence as he turned aside the puck definitely helped.

… I hope this round is enough to quiet the Pavel Datsyuk doubters out there. He’s was great again last night, even though he was kept off the scoreboard. Henrik Zetterberg has been less so, but still solid.

… Niklas Kronwall is going to be a real force for years to come if he can stay healthy.

… Obviously, the big concern coming out of this game is the fact that the Wings couldn’t get a better scoring average, despite the fact that the Predators were without three of their top centers (Jason Arnott, David Legwand, and Scott Nichol).

A good 20 of those 54 shots (if not more) were long and unscreened. Obviously, a long shot is better than no shot, but I’d definitely like to see in increase in the quality of scoring chances in Game 6.

… The Predators deserve credit for keeping the Wings away from the net as much as they did. Ellis, however, is the real hero of the game for Nashville. His tendency to give up juicy rebounds was not nearly as evident last night as it has been in other games. Had it been, the result may have been different. As it was, however, he made the first save and generally held onto the puck.

… The Wings will need to find a way to get the puck in the net more often Sunday. It’s not going to be an easy game. The Predators, though they took a thrashing so far as puck possession and shots are concerned, have plenty of confidence in their ability to steal a game, even with the Wings playing their style to a “t.”

They are in the driver’s seat again, but if anything, this series has shown that having the wheel doesn’t mean much if you don’t fight to keep it. Game 6 will be interesting.

Links

Highlights

Gorilla Crouch

Behind the Jersey

On the Forecheck

We will prevail

(ed. note: Flávio (zeh) de Moura of Red Wings Brasil asked me to brush up an anglicized version of this post and post it. I tried to clarify a couple passages while keeping as close to the original meaning as I could and without taking away from it’s “flavor.” It’s a great pre-game pep talk.

It was written by Eduardo Costa. - Matt)

Friends and fans of the best ice hockey team ever known, today is the day. Today is the day when the great Detroit Red Wings will, finally, sail over the playoff’s insurgent seas. We will wave good-bye to the slowdown predicted in the pre-post-season and start our sweep over the Predators in a best-of-three series.

Regardless of our superlative superiority, everything points to a challenging match. The Predators have many weapons of intimidation. They won’t hesitate to hit our guys, just like Jordin Tootoo did, stepping on Kris Draper on game 4. And, to donkeys like those, there ain’t no possibility for diplomacy. So, may belligerence overtake the hearts of the men in red.

But today we won’t face just the Predators’ prickers. Oh, no!

Beyond Nashville’s dizzying-mustard uniforms will be the jerseys of the jealous, the logo of the dastards, the colors of the weak-headed. Yes, 29 teams and their fans will be against the Wings tonight. They pine for our disgrace, dream about Goliath’s fall. They are in an intense dreaminess that our squad is on the mat, while the men in black and white striped t-shirts make the 10-to-0 countdown. If they could, they’d rape our wives, kick our dogs and sack or homes, so big is their jealous about or achievements.

For that not to happen, our defensive majesty must  be back and guide us. There’s no blue-line in the whole NHL like ours. And today is a good day to show why there’s no other like ours.

And may, on the other end of the ice, the sainted Datsyuk, the multitalented Zetterberg, the crease-master Tomas Holmstrom, the boards-gladiator Dallas Drake, the equus mulus Franzen decide.

That said, keeping in mind that a 10-second blackout is enough for an epic tragedy, to the nasty, scurrilous, and of-no-life Nashville Pedators, we’ll give the pain of defeat.

Tonight’s game will, also, be a will-o-meter. Not just for those who will be with red on at the JLA, but a test to our will as fans, as Wing-Nuts.

If you are expecting a loss to use that flagitious expression “I knew that,” refrain from passin the negative energy to our boys. Turn off your computer, TV or radio. Put on a Radiohead CD while you browse the last issue of the Rolling Stones magazine. Let us, who believe, raise our fists at each Red Wings’ goal, at each “great save by Osgood” (watched by Terry Sawchuk, from a better place than this).

Today is a great day to strike in the quest to the 11th Stanley Cup. Today our faithful and willing idol, Steve Y, will be on the stands. I’m with him. What about you?

Game 5: vs. Nashville, 7:30 ET

Update (4:18 PM): Joe Hass is handling the liveblog over at Behind the Jersey tonight. - Matt

Update (2:08 PM): HockeyTownTodd provides his perspective on the decision to start Chris Osgood over Dominik Hasek as well as other decisions by Babcock in this series. - Matt

Update (1:20 PM): Ansar Khan has a reaction from Darren Helm himself. - Matt

Update (12:34 PM): Great news: Darren Helm is in for Mark Hartigan tonight, reports Helene St. James.

Helm brings tons of speed and has plenty of skill. His downside is a lack of size, but with the right linemates, he should be effective. More so than Hartigan, at least.  - Matt

Update (10:21 PM): George Malik brings up another angle on the decision to switch goalies mid-series: the Predators have Dominik Hasek’s former goaltending coach on staff and are reading him like a book. - Matt

Tonight is the fifth game of the Western Conference Quarterfinal series between the Detroit Red Wings and the Nashville Predators. The series is tied 2-2, with the home team winning each game thus far:

Game 1 (3-1, Detroit)
Game 2 (4-2, Detroit)
Game 3 (5-3, Nashville)
Game 4 (3-2, Nashville)

For the Predators, this isn’t quite a must-win game because they have one more home date remaining and could stay alive with a win at home Sunday. However, a win today would be a knife in the back of Detroit and would require just a turn or two this weekend to finish them off.

Some keys for Nashville:

Score first. They did it Wednesday and never looked back. For them, the earlier they score, the better.

Run the Wings. As long as they’re getting away with it, they might as well take liberties with Detroit.

Dan Ellis. He’s shown a tendency to give up bad rebounds, but when the Wings were staging a comeback attempt in Game 4, he suddenly become a puck vacuum. If he can control rebounds like that again, it will go a long way in keeping the Wings from scoring.

There shouldn’t be any lineup changes for Nashville, but my guess is David Legwand will still be a game-time decision.

For the Wings, this is a definite must-win game. They cannot afford to go down 3-2 as they head back to Nashville Sunday. As it is, they have very little to build on in this game. They have to find a way to pick up where they left off in the third period of Game 4.

Some keys for Detroit:

Two goals in the first ten minutes. It is essential that the Wings come out hard tonight and putting a couple in the net during the first half of the period will help them take control of the game. Barring two goals, 10 quality shots and 8 total minutes of pressure would constitute a “hard” first ten.

Composure. Something they’ve been lacking this series. Either they get some or they’re done.

Chris Osgood. The Wings need to play in front of their goalie, but Ozzie needs to be the same steadying force he was after replacing Dominik Hasek in Game 4. The perception is, and I can’t say it’s wrong, that the Wings are in desparate straits to be switching goalies mid-series. Osgood needs to validate that decision.

The big lineup change, obviously, is Chris Osgood. It’s also possible that we may see Darren Helm or Justin Abdelkader enter the lineup. If so, my hope is that one of them would replace Mark Hartigan, but it’s probably likely to be someone else.

Defensively, Babcock has said he’ll return to the standard Lidstrom-Rafalski and Kronwall-Stuart pairings. It’s also possible that Andreas Lilja will return from his time out in the corner.

The Wings have been in this position as recently as the Flames series last season. In that Game 5, they came out with a dominating performance and won 5-1. That’s what they need tonight.

Game 4: Wings 2, Predators 3

Update (4:30 PM): The answer to my question below about the pairings, via MacLeod:

Babcock said that he split Rafalski and Lidstrom on the road. He wanted a puck-moving defenseman — Rafalski — to play when Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg were on the ice and a stopper — Lidstrom — on the ice whenever Nashville’s top line of Jason Arnott, Martin Erat and Alexander Radulov were on the ice.

Ah.

Well, with the Wings having the last change tomorrow night, Nick and Rafi will be reunited. - Matt

Update (1:22 PM): The Forchecker analyzes the faceoff statistics in this series. - Matt

Update (11:40 AM): One other thing I wanted to say: why did Babcock screw with the top four defensemen?

I see no reason to disrupt the two top units given the chemistry that has developed between Nick Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski and between Niklas Kronwall and Brad Stuart. I have to wonder if that wasn’t a major contributing factor in the Wings’ horrible start last night.

The insertion of Brett Lebda in the lineup should have changed nothing but the third pairing. - Matt

Update (11:29 AM): George Malik looks at the question of the Game 5 starter here. His conclusion: start Osgood, but that’s not the solution to the problem. This is a team-wide issue (with the exception of Pavel Datsyuk, Nick Lidstrom, and Tomas Holmstrom). - Matt

The Nashville Predators tied up “Series E” with the Detroit Red Wings last night as they skated to a 3-2 win at home.

Some thoughts on the game:

… I’m going to be hyperbolic and say that the first period and first half or so of the second period were among the biggest letdowns I remember as a fan. Nothing I saw this season prepared me for that. The slump in February at least could be attributed to injuries. Last night, all the power of the Red Wings roster was assembled and they couldn’t get it done. Instead, they looked like a bunch of guys in a pre-season game.

Even with their improved play toward the end of the period, I went into the third with my confidence in the team at a low point. They looked nothing like the team that ripped apart the League in the regular season.

… Pulling Dominik Hasek was absolutely the right decision. He wasn’t outright awful, but it’s clear that things are not going his way. That third Nashville goal was a backbreaker and the responsibility for that one rests on his Dom’s shoulders. It just clean beat him.

Osgood came in and slowly restored my confidence in the goaltending. You could see the team develop confidence as well. Without Osgood, that third period never would have happened and the Wings would have nothing to build on going into Game 5.

I don’t know who I’d like to see Friday night. Dom has a history of rebounding strong from bad games, but that may just be beyond him now. Osgood’s calm and poise, on the other hand, seemed to spread through the team on some level, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he got the nod.

… I have to say that Trotz and Poile’s lobbying has paid off in spades for the Predators. The officials pretty much gave them free rein last night. How many times was a Red Wing hauled to the ice, boarded, or tied up with no call?

Bill McCreary officiated with a chip on his shoulder, as evidenced by his ridiculous spazz-out on Tomas Holmstrom at the end of the first period: a whistle and “GET THE F— IN THERE!!!” when Holmstrom dared to ask about the call. He and the linesmen also micromanaged the face-off circle to the point where it seemed like nary a faceoff went by that a center wasn’t thrown out.

So the officiating sucked and has since Trotz and Poile whined about it, but that’s not the reason the Wings lost. The blown calls could have been overcome, but they couldn’t find a way to do it.

… One thing I hope we hear about again happened just before Chelios’ 15:31 interference penalty. With the two sides grinding the puck out along the boards, Kris Draper fell down. Jordin Tootoo then saw fit to step on Draper’s back in order to get to his other side. It seems to me that something’s wrong with that.

… I’m cautiously hopeful about Game 5. The Wings showed in the third period last night that they aren’t collapsing completely. Make no mistake about it, however, the Predators are now in the driver’s seat.

This happened in 2004 and the Wings pulled out wins in Games 5 and 6 to eliminated the Predators. They have it in them to do that again. It’s just a question of whether or not they will dig deep enough to take the wheel back from Nashville.

… For a better description of the game’s events, see Christy’s liveblog. Dave also has a look at the game.

Game 4: @ Nashville, 9:00 ET

Update (5:06 PM): IwoCPO’s keys to the game are here- Matt

Update (3:46 PM): Helene St. James cites the botched line change at the end of Game 3 as the reason behind the decision to scratch Lilja tonight.

I’m sorry, but to me Andreas is getting the shaft here. Whatever you think about his performance in general, I can’t see how it’s his fault he was left alone on that play. Frankly, given how little Arnott was held up by the wingers, the situation would have been a lot worse had Lilja made it all the way to the bench. As it is, I think he saw the play develop and tried to stop the hemorrage.

We’d be ripping him a new one today if he had gone off and there was no one back. Even Lidstrom, who came on for Chelios, wasn’t able to get back in time to cover Arnott.

Anyway, St. James also says that Darren Helm will take part in the pre-game skate, which means a decision on the mysterious unnamed injured forward won’t be made until after then. - Matt

Update (1:52 PM): Lilja haters rejoice: Ansar Khan reports that Brett Lebda is in for Andreas Lilja tonight. The team is sacrificing shot blocking in favor of speed. Lebda will play with Chris Chelios.

He also says that it’s possible Darren Helm could play, “depending on the status of an unidentified player who has a minor injury.” No one skipped out on practice, though, so there’s no hint as to who that player is. The first name that comes to my mind is Henrik Zetterberg. - Matt

Update (12:59 PM): Bruce MacLeod has the projected Red Wings lines for Game 4.

It doesn’t look like there will be any lineup changes as far as the forwards are concerned. MacLeod does leave open the possibility of Brett Lebda coming in for Andreas Lilja, however.

The interesting thing is that the Eurotwins are together in practice. MacLeod says,

The fact that Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg are together in the morning skate means that they’ll play on the same line for considerably longer than the two seconds they did at the start of Game 3.

He goes on to say that they can, of course, be split up if needed. - Matt

Update (11:25 AM): Bruce MacLeod has updated from the Predators’ morning skate. Nothing earth-shattering. Both David Legwand and Jason Arnott are expected to play, though the former is not practicing. - Matt

Update (9:37 AM): George Malik addresses the Wings’ composure issue here. - Matt

Update (8:24 AM): George Malik scouts the Predators here. - Matt

Tonight is the fourth game of the Western Conference Quarterfinal series between the Detroit Red Wings and the Nashville Predators. Detroit leads the series 2-1 after winning Game 1 and Game 2. Nashville won Game 3.

This is a must-win game for the Predators. They face the prospect of going down 3-1 in the series with a loss, but a win puts them in position for a possible upset. Some keys to the game for Nashville:

Score first. If anything, this series has shown that the Wings, however briefly, get somewhat rattled after Nashville scores. The goal should be as fluky and sudden as possible, for maximum shock value.

Be physical. The more physical the Predators are, the more physical the Wings will feel they have to be in response. Monday night showed that when the Wings go out of their way for a hit, the ice opens up for Nashville to exploit.

End power plays with a goal, not a penalty. Nashville’s tendency to take penalties while on the power play can’t be a factor tonight.

Keep Detroit away from Dan Ellis’ rebounds (or, Dan Ellis: no rebounds). Pretty self-explanatory.

It doesn’t look like there will be any lineup changes for the Preds. David Legwand (bruised foot) is probable.

This isn’t quite a must-win situation in the literal sense for the Wings, but that doesn’t mean it’s not extremely important that they gut one out here. They have a chance to take a stranglehold on the series as it heads back to Detroit. The alternative, a 2-2 series, is something I don’t even want to contemplate. There’s too much history in the negative direction.

Some keys to the game for Detroit:

Come out hard. They need to take the Predators out of it in the early going. There’s no reason why Nashville should have a monopoly on the fast-and-hard start. If the Wings pound Dan Ellis in the first ten and get a couple past him, they can then concentrate on playing a more measured, patient game of puck possession the rest of the night.

Team defense. The Wings showed a committment to team defense throughout the regular season and they need to have it in spades tonight. They need to shut the Predators down in every zone and demonstrate the dominance that led to the Jennings Trophy.

Composure. If the Predators do break through the defense and crack Dominik Hasek, the team needs to stay calm. It’s a veteran group and that shouldn’t even be an issue. Mike Babcock’s role in this is key.

Reunite the Eurotwins. In theory, it’s a great idea to separate them on the road. In practice, it didn’t work out so well. Babcock should dare Trotz to try and stop those two. Just be sure to back them up with decent ice time for Darren McCarty.

It’s possible that we may see a lineup change or two, but it won’t be a strict shakeup if it happens. Babcock told the media there may be a change if one or more of the guys need to rest some injuries.

It’s going to be a long day, folks.