Keeping Lilja

Posted by on . 10 comments

Sorry for the lack of posts on the Draft this weekend. We were Up North and I didn’t have much computer time. But you’re probably already read up on the Wings’ picks, so I’ll leave it at that.

I tweeted about this on Friday, but wanted to expand on it here:

Fiddling w/ numbers on CapGeek. w/ a $59.4m cap, DET can keep Lilja even w/raises for Helm, Eaves, Abby and Miller. Just no Meech. Do it Ken

Unfortunately, CapGeek doesn’t offer permalinks for mocked up rosters using their cap calculator feature (feature request!), so I won’t dump the full generated roster on you. But here are my numbers for Helm, Abdelkader, Miller, Eaves and Lilja (cap hit values in millions):

PlayerOld Cap HitNew Cap Hit
Total salary commitments$58,942,045
Cap Space$457,955
Darren Helm$.599$1
Patrick Eaves$.500$.750
Justin Abdelkader$.850$1
Drew Miller$.500$.750
Andreas Lilja$1.250$1.250

I figure Helm and Abdelkader are important enough to the team now to deserve that kind of raise. Conceivably, they could get less, of course. Maybe just to $900/$950. Miller and Eaves have obviously earned a paycheck higher than the half million they earned last year. I kept Lilja at the same rate because he didn’t necessarily earn a raise or a pay dock with that limited playing time. And the Wings can’t afford it.

This assumes Ken Holland sees the value in a guy like Lilja over a guy like Meech. I know I do. Meech is a nice utility player, but I thought Lilja looked great after returning from his concussion and I think he can be a more valuable guy to keep around. Especially when you think about the possibility of an all-youth third pairing on a Lilja-less team: Meech-Ericsson or Ericsson-Kindl or Kindl-Meech. Any way you cut it, that’s a recipe for disaster. One thing the Lebda-Ericsson experience showed is that there needs to be some experience anchoring down that end of the blueline.

Lilja may not be the first guy that comes to mind when you think “valuable experience,” but I’d much rather have him babysitting Jonny than Meech, who has been watching games from the stationary bike so much over the years that I have serious doubts about his ability to actually play hockey over the course of a full season any more.

So, give the forwards their raises, but in such a way that allows you to keep Lilja, Kenny. Please.

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Comments

  1. Garth says:
    June 27, 2010 at 5:56 pm

    I think Meech was qualified just in case they couldn't either come to reasonable terms with Lilja or find a replacement.

    As for the raises, I can't imagine they give Abdelkader a million dollar a year contract. He's got great energy and hits like a motherf*cker, but he also takes suspect penalties and only had 6 points in 50 games. I would imagine he gets the Leino deal this year, around $800-850 but one-way instead of the two-way deal he had before. I really don't see any justification for Abdelkader to make a million, especially when compared to Franzen and Hudler, who both had salaries around a million before their knew deals.

    I do think the rest of your salaries are in line though because Helm, Eaves and Miller all (in my opinion) earned raises and I can't really imagine Lilja demanding a raise. He's another guy I like a lot and I wouldn't mind seeing a rotating third pairing of Lilja/Ericsson/Kindl, but I don't see where a raise would come from.

    I'm gonna guess that most of these guys are gonna get short contracts (2-3 years) with the promise of more money when more money gets freed up.

    Reply
    • Matt Saler says:
      June 28, 2010 at 7:06 am

      Yeah, the proposed Abdelkader salary is the weakest point. I bumped him up there because it's not too far from his last cap hit and given that he'll be a regular this year, it didn't seem too far outside the realm of possibility. But you're right, it is harder to imagine than the other numbers. I doubt he'll be down at the $800,000 range, but $900,000 doesn't seem impossible.

      I think Lilja might take what's necessary to stay in Detroit. I hope so, anyway.

      Reply
      • Garth says:
        June 28, 2010 at 5:58 pm

        I think Abdelkader at around $850K is reasonable. I was reading an article today that said Abdelkader and Helm don't have arbitration rights (whereas Eaves, Miller and Meech do) so they're likely to get modest raises because they don't really have much leverage. I'm sure Holland won't take a real hard line, but if Abdelkader or Helm can't get to a number then they simply don't play.

        I'd like to think that Lilja will be reasonable. I've been following the Marc Savard "situation" the last few days and a lot of people are saying that he could be tough to move because of the concussion worry so honestly, you have to wonder what kind of market there is for -or at least what kind of money would be offered to- a defensman who spent an entire year on the sidelines due to a concussion. I think that's coming off worse than I mean it to, I just don't think Lilja would be in for any kind of raise if he hit the open market, unless he headed to the KHL or something (please don't go there, Lils).

        Reply
  2. Garth says:
    June 27, 2010 at 6:08 pm

    The only problem (and I don't see it as a huge problem) with signing all the RFA forwards is that it creates a logjam on the fourth line.

    If the top three lines are:

    Franzen-Datsyuk-Holmstrom

    Filppula-Zetterberg-Bertuzzi

    Hudler-Helm-Cleary

    or some variation (figuring Helm centres the third line & Abdelkader the fourth and figuring Bertuzzi isn't knocked off the second line by Hudler, just for the sake of argument) then it creates a logjam on the fourth line with Miller, Abdelkader, Eaves, Ritola and Draper all looking for ice time.

    Having three guys rotate on the third defensive pairing is one thing but having five guys vying for three spots on the fourth line, four of whom are young guys who would have just signed new one-way deals is a little ridiculous.

    Reply
    • Matt Saler says:
      June 28, 2010 at 7:08 am

      Yeah, good point. I'm not sure how it'd all work out, but who knows? Maybe injuries will solve that problem again. I hope not, but having more bodies on hand just in case is always better than being short.

      Reply
      • Garth says:
        June 28, 2010 at 6:04 pm

        Yeah, too many forwards is a pretty OK problem to have, my only problem is that before Ritola you've got 4 capable fourth liners fighting for three spots. Add in Ritola and it's a difficult position because you want to give a guy like that as much of a chance as possible to prove his worth, and if Ritola only plays 40 games or so he might never get a chance to get into a rhythm and we might have another Meech situation where his development definitely isn't helped by not playing consistently. On the other hand, I honestly have to guess that Draper is the first casualty, seeing as he was in the press box for the entirety of the playoffs, so maybe having Miller and Ritola rotating in and out most of the time wouldn't be terrible.

        Reply
  3. Osrt says:
    June 28, 2010 at 12:50 am

    I hope you're right Matt. Lilja is far more important than Meech at this point, and I think it would best for Meech to get a fresh start elsewhere. He's an NHL player and good one, but needs the space to prove it.

    Reply
    • Matt Saler says:
      June 28, 2010 at 7:09 am

      Right–he could be a passable NHLer with enough playing time, but he's unlikely to get that in Detroit, even if he wins out over Lilja. The Wings' priority will be to get Kindl in the lineup to aid in his development, so once again, Meech will probably be the odd man out.

      Reply
  1. Lilja’s Side: I Kinda Want More Money and a Bigger Role « On the Wings says:
    June 29, 2010 at 8:23 am

    [...] as Garth pointed out, you have to wonder what kind of market there is for -or at least what kind of money would be [...]

    Reply
  2. Followup: Keeping Lilja « On the Wings says:
    June 29, 2010 at 12:26 pm

    [...] In light of the analysis of others, I think I should rework my chart: [...]

    Reply

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