On the Wings

Update (6:24 PM): I’ve been waiting for a while to announce it until everything was finalized, but I have to say something now: Eric McErlain asked me a couple weeks ago to join AOL FanHouse and I of course accepted. It won’t change anything about OtW, but it will mean I’ll be writing stuff over there.

I mention this today both because I’m thrilled to be a part of the team and because my first official comments over there were published today in the Conference Finals Roundtable. I’ll be doing a post of my own after the craziness of graduation and leaving school is over (read: soon). - Matt

Update (4:05 PM): Bruce MacLeod confirms that Kirk Maltby will be a healthy scratch tonight. - Matt

Update (3:57 PM): Joe Hass will be liveblogging the game at Behind the Jersey. Sort of. He can explain. - Matt

Update (3:11 PM): Mike Heika reports that Stu Barnes (concussion-like symptoms) is close to returning, possibly as soon as Game 2.

Philippe Boucher (hip strain), on the other hand, doesn’t sound that close.

Heika also says that Brad Winchester is “probably” in tonight.

Also, Steph has a preview of the series posted at No Pun Intended. - Matt

Update (2:11 PM): Brandon at Stars blog Knee Jerk City has a good preview of the series posted. - Matt

Update (12:51 PM): Helene St. James reports that Valtteri Filppula (twisted leg) will play tonight after participating in the skate this morning. So the lineup should be the same that was iced in Game 4, with the only exception being Chris Chelios coming in for Andreas Lilja. Chelios missed Game 4 with what the team called a “lower body injury.”

It looks like Mike Babcock is relatively serious about mixing up the top four. The purpose behind the switch is to have a physical defenseman with an offensively-oriented partner, hence Lidstrom/Stuart and Rafalski/Kronwall. Sounds good on paper, but will it work? We’ll see. If Babcock is set on mixing things up, I’d probably rather have Kronwall with Lidstrom and Stuart with Rafalski, but that’s just me.

On the Stars’ side, Sergei Zubov is “99 percent” and will play, but Philippe Boucher (hip strain and Stu Barnes (concussion-like symptoms) both remain questionable.

Lastly, a correction on a link below: the Battle of California previews of this series were written by James O’Brien, not Earl Sleek. - Matt

Tonight is Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals series between the Detroit Red Wings and the Dallas Stars.

Playoff History

Detroit has won all three historical playoff series between these two franchises, posting a 12-6 record. Their last meeting was in the 1998 Conference Finals, a series the Wings won in six.

Regular Season Series

Detroit won the 2007-2008 season series 3-1, with wins January 2nd (4-1), January 5th (3-0), and March 13th (5-3). During the Wings’ 1-8-2 February skid the Stars won 1-0 on the 17th.

The Stars

Dallas finished the regular season 45-30-7 with 97 points. They began the playoffs against #4 Anaheim and eliminated the defending Stanley Cup Champions in six games after going into the Ducks’ building and winning the first two games. They then faced the Sharks and took a 3-0 series lead before dropping the next two games. They pulled out a Game 6 win in the fourth overtime on Sunday night.

Forwards

The Stars’ regular season point leader, Mike Ribeiro, is also leading the team in playoff scoring. He’s got 11 assists and 14 points in 12 games. His first line winger and captain, Brenden Morrow leads the team in goals with 7 and has 11 points. Morrow also leads the team in playoff hits with 66. Second line pivot Brad Richards has notched nine assists thus far and third line center Mike Madano is fourth in Stars scoring with four goals and 10 points.

Dallas is deep up the middle, but their wingers haven’t been big producers in the postseason. Morrow has been the exception rather than the rule  thus far as far as scoring from the wing is concerned, though Jere Lehtinen had a good second round. I think the Wings’ centermen match up pretty well with Dallas’, especially if Babcock breaks up the Eurotwins. The winger matchup seems to be squarely in the Wings’ favor.

Defense

Stephane Robidas leads the Stars in defenseman scoring with seven assists and eight points. The production tails off a bit after that, with Mattias Norstrom next at three assists and five points.  Sergei Zubov is looking good with four points in five games, though his -2 is a mark against him. Matt Niskanen (11 games), Nicklas Grossman (12) games), Mark Fistric (8 games), and Trevor Daley (12 games) combine for four points.

Robidas leads Dallas defenders with 59 hits, which is twice as many as any Red Wing blueliner. Grossman (28) and Norstrom (26) each have more than Nik Kronwall’s Detroit-leading 22 hits, which Mark Fistric ties.

The Stars have a solid, if young, defense. Just ask Mike Brophy, who sees the possibility for just the right mix of age and youth in the Dallas defensive corps for the staging of an upset. It’s that youth that the Wings will have to focus on as they search for weaknesses. If they can swarm and overwhelm young guys like Grossman, Fistric, and Niskanen, they should be well off. Robidas and Zubov are formidable, but they aren’t Nick Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski. Still, this should be a major defensive showdown.

Goaltending

Marty Turco has been great in the post-season thus far. His 1.73 GAA is second only to Chris Osgood’s (1.52) and his save percentage is a respectable fourth place .929, behind Osgood’s third-place .937. He’s been in net for all eight Dallas wins and has posted one shutout. As good as he is at the traditional goaltending job, it’s his puck handling ability that gives the Stars the edge in this category. The Wings will have to be exceptional on the forecheck to negative his acting like a third defenseman.

I’m not buying into idea that Turco can’t win at the Joe until it happens.

Injuries

Dallas is dealing with a couple of key injuries. Most important is defenseman Philippe Boucher, who is out with a hip strain. He practiced yesterday, but is doubtful for Game 1. He made the trip to Detroit with the Stars, however, and could be back for Game 2. His return would be a major help to the Stars’ defense.

Forward Stu Barnes is out with concussion-like symptoms. He practiced today and also made the trip to Detroit, but he is quetionable for Game 1. His return would bolster the Stars’ penalty kill and overall team defensive capabilities.

Dave Tippett tried something new with the lineup yesterday, bumping BJ Crombeer out and inserting former Edmonton Oiler Brad Winchester on the fourth line in the absence of Barnes. As George Malik pointed out, Winchester probably peaked in that 2006 series so Tippett could be looking for a rekindling of that fire this time around.

Thoughts

Some of what I think about this series can be read in that Q&A with James Mirtle that went up yesterday. As you can tell from that, I have a fair amount of confidence in the Wings’ depth. I expect this series to really drive the point home on that for a lot of people.

The Stars are a smart group and they know that they’ll have a lot on their hands with the Wings. I do not underestimate their ability to pull off the upset. Detroit will have to bring their “A” game to the rink every night in this series because Dallas is going to pounce on every mistake and make them pay for them. The same goes for the Stars, however. Anything less than a flawless series will result in elimination and an end to upsets.

Yesterday, Brandon B, evidently a Stars fan, was kind enough to point out to reader Greg that a the Wings’ having scored nearly a full goal per game more than the Stars in the postseason means nothing. His reasoning:

GAA regular season ranks:
#2 Anaheim
#3 SJ
#12 Colorado
#15 Calgary Nashville

Kind of makes that full goal per game … a little meaningless, doesn’t it?

Okay. Point taken. But I’ve noticed a slight flaw in your argument. The Wings were #1 in regular season GAA, so that near-goal differential becomes just a little more meaningful. Of course, the Stars are second in post-season GAA at 2.00 (compare to the Wings’ third-place 2.10), so regular season stats aren’t really applicable. This is the third round, after all. Let’s forget the stats and watch them play it out on the ice instead.

Links

Gorilla Crouch: Five questions for the Conference Finals

James Mirtle: Q&A with Stars blogger Mark Stepneski.

Earl Sleek: The Battle of California blogger has thoughts on the series.