Update (6:24 PM): I’ve been waiting for a while to announce it until everything was finalized, but I have to say something now: Eric McErlain asked me a couple weeks ago to join AOL FanHouse and I of course accepted. It won’t change anything about OtW, but it will mean I’ll be writing stuff over there.
I mention this today both because I’m thrilled to be a part of the team and because my first official comments over there were published today in the Conference Finals Roundtable. I’ll be doing a post of my own after the craziness of graduation and leaving school is over (read: soon). - Matt
Update (4:05 PM): Bruce MacLeod confirms that Kirk Maltby will be a healthy scratch tonight. - Matt
Update (3:57 PM): Joe Hass will be liveblogging the game at Behind the Jersey. Sort of. He can explain. - Matt
Update (3:11 PM): Mike Heika reports that Stu Barnes (concussion-like symptoms) is close to returning, possibly as soon as Game 2.
Philippe Boucher (hip strain), on the other hand, doesn’t sound that close.
Heika also says that Brad Winchester is “probably” in tonight.
Also, Steph has a preview of the series posted at No Pun Intended. - Matt
Update (2:11 PM): Brandon at Stars blog Knee Jerk City has a good preview of the series posted. - Matt
Update (12:51 PM): Helene St. James reports that Valtteri Filppula (twisted leg) will play tonight after participating in the skate this morning. So the lineup should be the same that was iced in Game 4, with the only exception being Chris Chelios coming in for Andreas Lilja. Chelios missed Game 4 with what the team called a “lower body injury.”
It looks like Mike Babcock is relatively serious about mixing up the top four. The purpose behind the switch is to have a physical defenseman with an offensively-oriented partner, hence Lidstrom/Stuart and Rafalski/Kronwall. Sounds good on paper, but will it work? We’ll see. If Babcock is set on mixing things up, I’d probably rather have Kronwall with Lidstrom and Stuart with Rafalski, but that’s just me.
On the Stars’ side, Sergei Zubov is “99 percent” and will play, but Philippe Boucher (hip strain and Stu Barnes (concussion-like symptoms) both remain questionable.
Lastly, a correction on a link below: the Battle of California previews of this series were written by James O’Brien, not Earl Sleek. - Matt
Tonight is Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals series between the Detroit Red Wings and the Dallas Stars.
Playoff History
Detroit has won all three historical playoff series between these two franchises, posting a 12-6 record. Their last meeting was in the 1998 Conference Finals, a series the Wings won in six.
Regular Season Series
Detroit won the 2007-2008 season series 3-1, with wins January 2nd (4-1), January 5th (3-0), and March 13th (5-3). During the Wings’ 1-8-2 February skid the Stars won 1-0 on the 17th.
The Stars
Dallas finished the regular season 45-30-7 with 97 points. They began the playoffs against #4 Anaheim and eliminated the defending Stanley Cup Champions in six games after going into the Ducks’ building and winning the first two games. They then faced the Sharks and took a 3-0 series lead before dropping the next two games. They pulled out a Game 6 win in the fourth overtime on Sunday night.
Forwards
The Stars’ regular season point leader, Mike Ribeiro, is also leading the team in playoff scoring. He’s got 11 assists and 14 points in 12 games. His first line winger and captain, Brenden Morrow leads the team in goals with 7 and has 11 points. Morrow also leads the team in playoff hits with 66. Second line pivot Brad Richards has notched nine assists thus far and third line center Mike Madano is fourth in Stars scoring with four goals and 10 points.
Dallas is deep up the middle, but their wingers haven’t been big producers in the postseason. Morrow has been the exception rather than the rule thus far as far as scoring from the wing is concerned, though Jere Lehtinen had a good second round. I think the Wings’ centermen match up pretty well with Dallas’, especially if Babcock breaks up the Eurotwins. The winger matchup seems to be squarely in the Wings’ favor.
Defense
Stephane Robidas leads the Stars in defenseman scoring with seven assists and eight points. The production tails off a bit after that, with Mattias Norstrom next at three assists and five points. Sergei Zubov is looking good with four points in five games, though his -2 is a mark against him. Matt Niskanen (11 games), Nicklas Grossman (12) games), Mark Fistric (8 games), and Trevor Daley (12 games) combine for four points.
Robidas leads Dallas defenders with 59 hits, which is twice as many as any Red Wing blueliner. Grossman (28) and Norstrom (26) each have more than Nik Kronwall’s Detroit-leading 22 hits, which Mark Fistric ties.
The Stars have a solid, if young, defense. Just ask Mike Brophy, who sees the possibility for just the right mix of age and youth in the Dallas defensive corps for the staging of an upset. It’s that youth that the Wings will have to focus on as they search for weaknesses. If they can swarm and overwhelm young guys like Grossman, Fistric, and Niskanen, they should be well off. Robidas and Zubov are formidable, but they aren’t Nick Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski. Still, this should be a major defensive showdown.
Goaltending
Marty Turco has been great in the post-season thus far. His 1.73 GAA is second only to Chris Osgood’s (1.52) and his save percentage is a respectable fourth place .929, behind Osgood’s third-place .937. He’s been in net for all eight Dallas wins and has posted one shutout. As good as he is at the traditional goaltending job, it’s his puck handling ability that gives the Stars the edge in this category. The Wings will have to be exceptional on the forecheck to negative his acting like a third defenseman.
I’m not buying into idea that Turco can’t win at the Joe until it happens.
Injuries
Dallas is dealing with a couple of key injuries. Most important is defenseman Philippe Boucher, who is out with a hip strain. He practiced yesterday, but is doubtful for Game 1. He made the trip to Detroit with the Stars, however, and could be back for Game 2. His return would be a major help to the Stars’ defense.
Forward Stu Barnes is out with concussion-like symptoms. He practiced today and also made the trip to Detroit, but he is quetionable for Game 1. His return would bolster the Stars’ penalty kill and overall team defensive capabilities.
Dave Tippett tried something new with the lineup yesterday, bumping BJ Crombeer out and inserting former Edmonton Oiler Brad Winchester on the fourth line in the absence of Barnes. As George Malik pointed out, Winchester probably peaked in that 2006 series so Tippett could be looking for a rekindling of that fire this time around.
Thoughts
Some of what I think about this series can be read in that Q&A with James Mirtle that went up yesterday. As you can tell from that, I have a fair amount of confidence in the Wings’ depth. I expect this series to really drive the point home on that for a lot of people.
The Stars are a smart group and they know that they’ll have a lot on their hands with the Wings. I do not underestimate their ability to pull off the upset. Detroit will have to bring their “A” game to the rink every night in this series because Dallas is going to pounce on every mistake and make them pay for them. The same goes for the Stars, however. Anything less than a flawless series will result in elimination and an end to upsets.
Yesterday, Brandon B, evidently a Stars fan, was kind enough to point out to reader Greg that a the Wings’ having scored nearly a full goal per game more than the Stars in the postseason means nothing. His reasoning:
GAA regular season ranks:
#2 Anaheim
#3 SJ
#12 Colorado
#15 Calgary NashvilleKind of makes that full goal per game … a little meaningless, doesn’t it?
Okay. Point taken. But I’ve noticed a slight flaw in your argument. The Wings were #1 in regular season GAA, so that near-goal differential becomes just a little more meaningful. Of course, the Stars are second in post-season GAA at 2.00 (compare to the Wings’ third-place 2.10), so regular season stats aren’t really applicable. This is the third round, after all. Let’s forget the stats and watch them play it out on the ice instead.
Links
Gorilla Crouch: Five questions for the Conference Finals
James Mirtle: Q&A with Stars blogger Mark Stepneski.
Earl Sleek: The Battle of California blogger has thoughts on the series.
WOW!
An objective story from Wings fans. I think it’s going to be a FANTASTIC hockey series, people. Although I’ve been bred to hate the Wings, I can’t help but appreciate the hell out of what they did over the regular season AND how you mightily handled the Avs in the second round. 8-2? Really? Kudos to a strong, disciplined team. I can’t WAIT for this series to get underway tonight! Go Stars!
Earl Sleek: The Battle of California blogger has thoughts on the series.
Actually, we have a Stars guy at Battle of California — James O’Brien — who’s been writing up the Dallas perspective all postseason. It’s a little bit outside the borders of the state of California, but we’re flexible.
Anyway, he’s done most of the previewing of this series at BoC, just fyi.
Very cool … lived in LA for a while as a youth … but my heart lives in Texas! What binds us together? Smash-mouth hockey! Good luck to all the Wings fans … GO STARS!!
My ineloquent post yesterday was pointing out the flaw in another blogger’s post that the Wings have scored a goal per game more than the Stars.
I guess you missed my point. The Wings played mediocre defensive teams while the Stars played 2 of the top 3 defensive teams. Most would expect the Stars to score fewer goals than the Wings against 2 teams barely in the top half of the league.
So, the Stars have shown they can score against good defensive teams which is good considering they are now playing the top team in GAA.
The Wings have proven they can score goals against poor defensive teams (playoff teams that is), but they haven’t seen a good defensive team until now. Can they average 3 goals per game against Dallas? If the Wings want to beat Dallas, they will have to because Dallas has proven they will average 2+ goals per game.
And that is why I say the 1 goal per game difference is not as meaningful as it appears.
Oh yeah…GO STARS!
Greg,
Looking forward to a strong series. Good luck!
Earl,
Sorry about that. Should have been more careful to read the byline.
Brandon,
I got your point, but you missed mine. The Wings are even tighter defensively than Anaheim and San Jose and it will be that much more difficult for the Stars to break through. As for the Stars’ defensive prowess, it’s there, but so is the fact you allude to: the Wings were third in regular season scoring at 3.07 goals per game. The question you should be asking yourself is not can the Wings can score three or more goals a game, but can the Stars keep them [from] scoring three or more? (Typo corrected - ed.)
Whether or not the Wings are a better defensive team than Anaheim or SJ is debatable. There are only 7 and 9 goal differences between Anaheim and SJ. When you consider both Anaheim and SJ probably had more empty netters against them than Detroit, the goals against is skewed a bit. The difference in GAA is only 5 and 8 goals over the whole season. Add in the higher quality opponents in the Pacific and you can safely say that Detroit, Anaheim, and SJ are equal in defense.
Dallas has a 2.92 GFA against teams with the same quality defense as Detroit. So, again, the Stars have proven they can score on the level of defense. Detroit has a 3.80 GFA against teams with a much lower quality D than Dallas. Barring a Stars meltdown, the Wings aren’t going to average 4 goals per game. So, how low it goes will determine the series.
I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that the Stars can “keep them scoring three or more,” but I doubt they are going to try.
Brandon,
We can argue this forever, but one thing that you cannot use against the Wings is their being in the Central. They tore up the rest of the League and didn’t get it together against the Central until the end of the season.
And sorry about the typo. You know what I meant!
Good news about Val Filp, and Cheli comming in. Lilja hasn’t really given the playoff preformance that he did last year so it’s good to see Lebda getting some time. Not that he was making the play by play’s announce his name a whole lot with the games he’s been in - but maybe thats a good thing!
The only question is when they are going to get Malts into a game. I can understand and support not messing with a winning lineup, but if Helm has an off game or two I would be completely be pushing for getting Mats into the line up for him. That would put a ? at the 4th line center - could Drake center it effectively? Maybe not. But I wouldn’t want to see dMac sit, but I am kind of a fanboy about that subject. No way Babs would replace Hudler or Sammy (or should).
Matt,
Thanks for the link to my preview at KJC. For the record, I’m not the same guy as the Brandon B poster you’re arguing with right now. If I had to guess, he posts pretty regularly over at the Dallas Morning News Stars blog.
I tend to side with Matt in that I think it’ll be awfully hard to keep the Wings to 3 goals a game consistently throughout this series. I think the only way that happens is if Marty steals a game or two. Otherwise, Dallas is going to have to lean pretty heavily on their scoring depth. And while the Stars have given me plenty of reason to ‘believe’ during this post-season run, I can’t deny that scoring depth dried up as the series against San Jose progressed.
Morrow’s been phenomenal both as a source of offense and as a captain leading this team. But if he doesn’t get help from the Stars big guns along with some of the members of the checking line, it’s going to be a short series.
Earl, Sorry about that. Should have been more careful to read the byline.
No worries, we’re not all-stars when it comes to featuring who writes each post, but I have to protect my (fake) name!
Matt, I’m not holding the Central against the Wings. I actually made the same point to a non-thinking Stars homer on DMN’s blog. I was just saying that when you are talking about a 5 - 10 goal difference over a season, the quality of opponent comes into play. The Wings play more games against some seriously scoring challenged teams than Anaheim and SJ do. That could easily account for the handful of goals more that those 2 teams gave up.
Congrats on joining the Fanhouse! Nice game by the Wings tonight. Good to see them get off on the right foot considering how the Stars have done in the first two rounds.
Matt-
Congrats on the FanHouse gig! I could not think of a Wings blogger more deserving- your analysis is always top notch. Way to go!
I just got home from the Joe at 12:15am. Work is making it a bit hard to blog consistently whatsoever haha, but I think it’s a good reason for that.
Go Wings!
Congrats on the Fanhouse gig, that’s awesome! It’ll be great to see you over there too