On the Wings

I apologize for the lack of posting around here lately. I don’t have an explanation for it other than that I’ve been getting home from work late and have been exhausted. Dial-up doesn’t help, either. Hopefully things will settle down into a regular routine, so that I’m not working 11- and 13-hour days. But, here’s my series preview, for what it’s worth.

Tonight is the first game of the Western Conference Quarterfinal series between the Detroit Red Wings and the Anaheim Ducks. The season series was a 2-2 tie, with the Wings winning January 2nd (2-1) and March 26th (1-0). The Ducks won the October 18th (4-1) and January 7th (4-2) meetings between the two teams.

Anaheim finished the regular season second place in the Western Conference with a 48-20-14 record (110 Pts). They took the Minnesota Wild and Vancouver Canucks in five games in the first and second round respectively and have been idle since last Thursday.

During the regular season, Teemu Selanne lead all Duck skaters in points with 94 points (48g, 46a), but his six points (3g, 3a) is good for just fifth on the team in the playoffs. Andy McDonald was second in scoring with 78 points (27g, 51a) during the regular season, and is fourth in the playoffs with four goals and four assists. Chris Kunitz (60) and Ryan Getzlaf (58) are the only other Duck forwards to crack 50 regular season points, but Dustin Penner (45) and Corey Perry (44) were not far behind. With the exception of Getzlaf, who has 7, that group has five points each in the postseason. After that, the numbers trail off a bit, with four 20+ point producers, four below-20 double-digit producers and a clump of single-digit guys. Their top forwards are very skilled, but I don’t think this is as deep a group of forwards overall as the Sharks had, folks. They certainly did not spread the puck around as well as San Jose did, and they don’t do it as well as the Wings, either.

The Ducks’ regular season third and fifth-place scorers were Scott Niedermeyer and Chris Pronger, with 69 and 59 points respectively. Pronger is the team leader in the postseason, however, with 11 points, 8 of which are assists. Niedermeyer only has five points. During the regular season, Niedermeyer was a paltry +6, but Pronger was an impressive +27. The Ducks don’t get a lot of production from their defense beyond those two, though, with their third defenseman in scoring, Francois Beauchemin notching 28 points.

Of course, the Wings got a lot of offense from their top two as well and not so much from the others, so they have similar setups. Overall, though, it seems that the Duck blueliners beyond Chrisscott Niederprongermeyer are less offensively-minded than those of the Wings, if a +/- comparison between the two corps is any indication. Three of the Wings’ other five defensemen had double digit positive numbers, while the Ducks had no one in double digits beyond the top two. That seems to indicate a higher level of involvement in the offense by the Wings’ other defensemen. After lighting up a young and inexperienced but offense-oriented Sharks defense, facing a group of defensive defenseman will be a challenge for the forwards.

Our old friend JS Giguere was the starter during the regular season for the Ducks and continues to do so, though Ilya Bryzgalov saw four starts against the Wild in the first round. Giguere posted a 2.26 GAA and a .918 save-percentage in the regular season, with 36 wins, but has been extremely good in the postseason, with a 1.28 GAA and a .952 save-percentage in 7 games. We Wings fans know how effective Giguere can be, so those stats are nothing to laugh at. He’s having another great playoffs and will be a tough nut to crack. Still, he’s not Dominik Hasek, and I know who I’d rather have in a goaltending duel, which is what this could very well be.

Overall, I have to admit I don’t know much about the Ducks. Looking at the stats, they don’t look that scary, but stats don’t tell everything and I’m expecting a tough series. I do think the Wings can handle them, though, so I think it’s their series to lose. They’ve faced stiff tests in the form of the Flames and Sharks and have come out on top, while the Ducks have had a fairly easy ride of it thus far. Of course, that means the Wings are more banged up and more tired, but I think their drive and determination speaks for itself.

The Ducks have had a long break and are rested, but how much of their edge was taken off? I don’t think we can expect too much in that regard at this point, as the Ducks didn’t get to the Conference Finals by being slow starters. Will the Wings be able to overcome the loss of Schneider? If Monday night’s game was any indication, it looks like they’ll be able to do it, as long as Hasek plays like he can and the forwards play responsibly. Having Brett Lebda and Kyle Quincey (or Derek Meech) on the blueline is not the extreme disadvantage many people seem to think it is.

To me, Dom is the key to this series. He needs to carry the team here and if he does, expect a result similar to the first two rounds for the Wings. That said, I hope to see the Wings as a whole play up to their potential this round, something they did not do at times against the Sharks. That inconsistency almost burned them then and could do so again, in spite of Hasek, so they’ll need to be better overall against the Ducks.

I don’t have a prediction, because I don’t really know yet what to expect in this series. I’m confident the Wings can win it, but the operative word there is “can.” Again, I think this is their series to lose.

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