On the Wings

Update (5:31 PM): IwoCPO has posted his version of a series preview, from 30,000 feet. If you read nothing else tonight, read that. Nobody does it like Iwo. - Matt

Update (5:30 PM): More from The Hat: it looks like tonight’s game will not be a sellout. You’d think that the Wings would have brought some people back into the fold with their first round performance. Guess not. - Matt

Update (3:41 PM): Helene St. James has some bad news: Tomas Holmstrom has apparently told a Swedish newspaper that he will not return until Game 4 at the earliest.

It looks like Craig Conroy’s inability to properly control his stick could have long-lasting effects on Homer, if he’s not careful. The Swedish report indicated he was told that if his eye starts bleeding again, it could permanently damage his eyesight. Needless to say, Holmstrom is taking it very easy until this is fully healed and the team is not going to be rushing him back. This is a little more serious than the light-hearted “it depends on his healing process” banter being reported in the Detroit papers indicated it was.

St. James says he’s scheduled to see a specialist tomorrow and Monday, so we’ll know more then. A Game 4 return sounds like a rough, and probably optimisic, estimate, especially considering he’ll have to be involved in a couple practices before he’d be ready to play after days of inactivity.

Let’s hope nothing further happens with his eye and that it heals like it should. Apart from the fact that his career would likely be over if his eyesight is badly affected, it would be a bad situation all around for Homer to have to deal with long-term.

The Wings are going to need to find a way to score on the power play without Homer, because it looks like they may not have him much at all during this series. - Matt

Update (3:29 PM): The Globe and Mail’s Eric Duhatschek has a good injury update/series preview posted. We already know about the Wings’ injuries, but The Hat points out that San Jose will be without Mark Bell, which is something I’d somehow missed.

The 6′4″, 220lb Bell, who has a groin injury, posted 21 points over the course of the regular season, and was held pointless in the two games he played against the Predators before going down with the injury. He was minus-1 in the first round.

A comment on Duhatschek: he’s one of the best in the business, that’s for sure. His analysis is always worth reading and his writing is high quality. What other hockey writer can work the phrase “vis a vis” into a hockey article without sounding like a condescending esthete? - Matt

Update (2:30 PM): Sharks Page’s PJ Swenson has posted his series preview. - Matt

Update (2:00 PM): Ansar Khan has chimed in. He doesn’t have anything to add to the discussion except this: “Holmstrom’s status for Game 2 Saturday is up in the air. But, it sounds like Brett Lebda (sprained ankle) might be out longer.” That’s not good news for the Wings, who could really use Lebda’s speed as soon as possible. - Matt

Update (12:41 PM): Looks like Paul Devorski and and Dennis LaRue will be the referees tonight, while Greg Devorski and Brad Lazarowich will man the lines (via NHL Media). - Matt

Update (12:31 PM): From Helene St. James, we have the first official (or, at least the first sourced) input to the discussion on the other winger for the top line tonight: “… Babcock said that it would most likely either be Kyle Calder or Mikael Samuelsson who would play in Holmstrom’s spot on a line with Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk.”

St. James goes on to opine, like I’ve been saying since Bruce MacLeod gave us the practice lines yesterday, that Kyle Calder seems to be the most likely of the two. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, if there is some interchange between the first and the fourth lines, as I think there’s a good chance Valtteri Filppula could see some time with Hank and Pave. - Matt

Update (11:52 AM): Bruce MacLeod confirms that Henrik Zetterberg is slated to play tonight, citing Mike Babcock as the source. Apparently, Hank rode a stationary bike today rather than practice.

MacLeod says Zetterberg will be the center of the top line today, with Pavel Datsyuk on one wing and an as-yet-unnamed player (likely Calder) on the other. That’s a departure from the team’s usual practice, which has been to have Pavel in the middle the majority of the time. - Matt

Update (11:43 AM): John Niyo reports on the Detroit News Wings blog that Mikael Samuelsson and Kyle Calder “laughed off” yesterday’s report out of Toronto that said they are playing hurt, while Ken Holland also told Niyo that the story was not true. So, while most people seem convinced that there is some injury there, the point is they’re both playing, otherwise the Wings would be at least a little more forthright.

Niyo also reports that the story from the Wings on Hank is that he had the flu over the past couple days. Um, I’m not sure I believe that one, but they are saying he’s ready to play tonight, so that’s something to ease our fears. - Matt

Update (11:30 AM): Dave at Gorilla Crouch has a great post up in which he takes a “quick tour” through a number of articles relating to Game 1. Be sure to check it out. - Matt

Update (11:20 AM): Bruce MacLeod reports that Henrik Zetterberg did not participate in the morning skate. Yesterday I wrote that I wouldn’t be worried unless he didn’t skate today, so now that he hasn’t, I’m a bit worried. MacLeod doesn’t know what Hank’s status for tonight is, but promises to update when he does. It could just be more rest, like he says, but it also could be a more serious issue. This could be bad news for the Wings, or it might just be normal operating procedure for Hank now. We’ll find out soon enough. - Matt

Tonight is Game 1 of the Wings’ Western Conference Semifinal series with the San Jose Sharks. It is the Wings’ first second round game since May 3rd, 2004, the date of a 1-0 loss to Calgary in Game 6. If you’re a Wings fan like me, you’re hoping their first round series win over the last team they faced in the second round is a good omen for this series, a first step in the exorcism their postseason demons.

As is well known by now, the Sharks won the season series with the Wings, 3-1. Their wins came on October 19th (5-1), December 2nd (3-2) January 4th (9-4), while the Wings won the October 25th game (2-1). As you can see, we only have reactions to two of those games, so I can only provide a partial picture of the Sharks based on the Wings’ regular season meetings with them.

The December 2nd recap is more of a rant against the calling back of a Wings goal than anything else, but I do notice a few interesting things that have some bearing on the discussion surrounding this series: 1) the Wings did not play well, 2) Joey MacDonald was in net, 3) he nearly won the game for the Wings. Of course, two of those three are just my opinion, so you can discount them if you like, but you can’t deny that the Wings’ #3 goalie was in net for a game the Sharks only won 3-2. Also of note is the fact that the Wings had played in Minnesota the night before and had returned to Detroit early in the morning on the 2nd.

The January 2nd recap looks at the infamous 9-4 drubbing of the Wings by the Sharks. It was a game Wings fans look back on now as some kind of bad dream, where they saw the Wings blow a three-goal lead on the way to allowing nine straight from San Jose. The Sharks were a whopping 6-for-9 on the power play in that game and chased Dominik Hasek on the ninth goal after Dom decided enough was enough (he wouldn’t let Babcock pull him earlier than that).

A few points about the game I think are relevant: 1) it was a meltdown of epic proportions, but the Wings started off well and jumped to a big lead, 2) Chris Chelios was not playing, or even with the team, as he was dealing with the fallout from the murder at his restaurant, 3) Pavel Datsyuk also did not play, as he was out with a groin injury. To the first point, you may say, “So what? They fell apart!” That’s right and it is disturbing, even now, but keep in mind that the Wings outplayed the Sharks until the meltdown. As for the second point, the Chelios haters out there may discount his importance to the team, but Wings fans don’t. That was a hit to the blueline, for sure. And the third point speaks for itself.

Okay, so maybe the Wings’ 1-3 record against the Wings during the regular season isn’t as bad as it has become in the minds of us Wings fans, but the fact is these teams haven’t played each other for over four months. They are very different teams now and may stack up a completely different way after so long.

So, I propose a more recent, but indirect and rough, comparison: their performances against the Nashville Predators. Since January, the Wings played the Preds six times, while the Sharks faced them seven times (twice in the regular season and five times in the first round). San Jose went 0-1-1 in the two regular season games, but handled them easily in the postseason, posting a 4-1 record. The Wings were 5-1 in their six games against Nashville, with wins January 17th (5-3), March 6th (4-3 SO), March 13th (5-2), March 14th (4-2), and March 29th (2-1). The loss came on February 24th (4-3 OT). Granted, the Predators were dealing with injuries in March, but so were the Wings, so the wins are still useful for comparison’s sake. I know, of course, that the regular season is very different from the playoffs (Sharks fans would do well to remember that, as well), but this at least demonstrates that they are in some way capable of handling the Preds easily, much like San Jose did.

Now for some statistics from the Sharks/Preds series. Because I did not watch the series, I cannot speak for the story behind the Sharks stats, so I present them merely as they are, with the qualification that they may be misleading and that the comparisons may be unfair:

• Three of the Sharks’ wins over Nashville were one goal contests (both of the Wings’ losses were by one goal and only the Game 6 win was)
• San Jose was 2-for-30 on the power play. That’s 6.7% (The Wings were 5-for-38: 13.2%)
• The Sharks were 86.4% on the penalty-kill, allowing five three goals on 22 times shorthanded (The Wings were 82.4%, with six on 34).
• Joe Thornton did not score a goal in the first round, but he did have six assists to lead the team (Lidstrom also had six assists, but added two goals)
• The Sharks allowed 134 shots and took 163 in the first round. (Wings: 255 to 129)
• When the Sharks were outshot, they won twice. (Compare to the Wings: they outshot the Flames in every game, but lost twice)
• Evgeni Nabokov had a 2.39 GAA and a .902 save-percentage (Dominik Hasek had 1.57 GAA and a .922 save-percentage)

Another qualification: the Sharks were playing a higher-seeded team, while the Wings were facing #8. Still, most people figured the Flames were the better team, so the seeding difference may not mean much.

Anyway, the little I know about the Sharks makes it an easy call: they’ll be a tougher team to play than the Flames were. The presence of Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Jonathan Cheechoo alone makes them more formidable. Their top five forwards, Thornton (114 pts), Marleau (78), Cheechoo (69), Milan Michalek (66), and Bill Guerin (56)*, in fact, outscored the Wings’ top five scorers, forward or defenseman. This is a deep group, folks, and it goes beyond the top two lines. They had 12 players with double-digits in goals, 10 of whom are forwards, while the Wings had 13, 11 of whom were forwards. So, like the Wings, they can roll four lines and get scoring from each of them.

The team as a whole only scored 256 goals, which was just one more than the Flames’ totals and four more than the Wings, so any claim that their offense is astronomically better than either Detroit’s or Calgary’s is not borne out. The Wings did average more shots per game than the Sharks, though, with 33.8 to their 28.6.

The Sharks’ top three are on par with any top three in the league, but overall, I think the Wings have the advantage here, if only slightly, because I know the quality of their depth better than I know that of the Sharks. You know the Wings are deep when there is such a debate over which of their forwards has to sit when all are healthy. As it stands, the forward corps is down a man, Tomas Holmstrom, so Jiri Hudler will be filling in.

San Jose is also deep defensively, though they lack the name recognition the Wings’ defensemen have. Their big four, Scott Hannan, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Craig Rivet, and Kyle McLaren average over 21 minutes a game, while the Wings have only three defensemen who got comparable ice-time over the course of the regular season, Nicklas Lidstrom, Mathieu Schneider, and Niklas Kronwall (who is out with a broken pelvis now). Those guys are also big in another sense: they’re all near or above 200 pounds and over six feet all.

The Sharks’ defensemen do not figure as much into the team’s offense as the Wings’ top blueliners do, as their top two scoring defensemen, Matthew Carle and Christian Ehrhoff, had 42 and 33 points respectively. Compare that to Nick Lidstrom and Mathieu Schneider’s 62 and 52. Carle and Ehrhoff do threaten on the power play, however, with the former getting 8 goals on the power play and the latter notching 6. for the Wings, Nick Lidstrom had 10 and Mathieu Schneider had 2 PPGs.

As far as team defense goes, the Sharks allowed 197 goals over the course of the season, which was sixth, while the Wings’ 191 was second. Also, they allowed an average of 26.2 shots per game while the Wings allowed 24.6.

I have no doubt that the Sharks’ defensemen are good. Their size is definitely intimidating and they obviously are good in their own end. However, their youth is not intimidating and neither is their lesser offensive prowess. I stand by the assertion that I’ve often made: the Wings have one of the best defensive corps in the NHL, if not the best, and the loss of Niklas Kronwall to injury did not change my opinion. After its performance in the first round, I have complete faith in it as a whole, including its old weak spot, Andreas Lilja. Nicklas Lidstrom alone tilts the table in the Wings’ favor and after him there’s Mathieu Schneider and Chris Chelios, both of whom are as good as veterans get. My confidence extends to Kyle Quincey, who acquitted himself very well in Game 6 against Calgary and who will be filling in for Brett Lebda for at least a game.

In the goaltending department, I’ve seen it said that it’s a wash. I can’t say I agree, though their statistics are pretty close. Evgeni Nabokov had a 2.29 GAA over 50 games (25 wins), while Dominik Hasek’s GAA was 2.05 over 56 (38 wins). Nabokov has a slightly better save percentage, .914, than Hasek’s .913%, but he also faced fewer shots (1227 to 1309). Both men are very good goalies, but Dominik Hasek is Dominik Hasek and he’s not lost a series while in the Winged Wheel. I know who I’d like in there when the pressure’s on. The Sharks also have a very capable “backup” in Vesa Toskala, whose numbers, 2.35 GAA and .908 save-percentage, are comparable to Chris Osgood’s 2.38 GAA and .907 save-percentage.

Unlike the last series, I don’t think there is a clear advantage in coaching. Ron Wilson is a capable guy, having guided a team to the Stanley Cup Finals before, but so is Mike Babcock and he’s done the same. In fact, if your criteria is Finals appearances, Babcock made the better showing, as his Ducks made it to seven games, while Wilson’s Capitals were unceremoniously swept by our Wings. Still, that was nearly a decade ago (hard to believe) and Wilson has a better team now, I think, than he had then. Babcock’s coaching ability will certainly be tested as he works on getting the right matchups out there in the face of San Jose’s depth. The same goes for Wilson. Babcock, at least, has been a bit more discrete than Wilson in his discussions about the coming series, so there’s maybe an advantage there with Babs as far as attitude goes.

If you’ve been reading George Malik’s blog, Snapshots, at all over the past couple days, you know that the Sharks have been talking big in much the same way the Flames did. We all know the Wings made the Flames eat their words and we can only hope that they do the same to San Jose. I admit, I had my doubts during the first round that they could keep up the kind of game they played in Games 1 and 2, but they showed that they have the drive to do what it takes to win, and because of that, I believe they’ll come out in this series with the same style and the same attitude. If they truly do that, I’m confident they can handle the Sharks, though it will obviously be a more difficult task than they had with Calgary. The Sharks are a very good, well-coached team and the Wings cannot take them for granted.

In years past, I would be concerned about the Sharks’ size, but the Wings have bulked up this season and have some big bodies that can handle the type of contact they’re likely to see this round. This series will be huge for Johan Franzen, Robert Lang, and Todd Bertuzzi, that’s for sure, and the same goes for Dan Cleary, Kris Draper, and Kirk Maltby. Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk have shown that they can play with a physical game, but they may have some difficulty playing 5-on-5 with the Sharks. This will be a real test for them, especially Hank, with his back acting up, like it apparently is.

One thing we can hope for is that San Jose’s size will result in obstruction penalties, in which case the Wings must be better on the power play than they were against Calgary. The Sharks’ size will also create penalties going the other way, however, so the Wings will need to be very good on the penalty kill as well. I don’t want to see a series decided on the basis of special teams, but it has defined previous games between these two teams and there’s always a chance it could crop up again.

This will be a very hard-fought series both ways. The Wings will need to use their home-ice advantage to the max and try to eke out a win on the road in the slush at the Shark Tank. It’s going to be a real test of their resolve, as the Sharks’ size and speed will make the games especially tiring, and the travel will be a real drain. I’m glad for this, though, because it gives the team a chance to build on what it started with Calgary rather than giving them sort of a series off. This is where we’ll find out whether or not the 2006-2007 Red Wings are for real. I’m going in expecting a long series, which is why my prediction is Wings in 6, but I’m not ruling out a shocker in this one.

See also:

From Behind the Mask
Gorilla Crouch

Expect updates throughout the day.

*Only nine of those points were scored during Guerin’s time with San Jose, which began February 28th.