Update (3:20 PM): Helene St. James reports that Brett Lebda will not play tonight. Apparently, Mike Babcock made the decision before the morning skate was even over. She does not provide any information on the possibility of Brett playing tomorrow against Dallas, but it does seem unlikely that he’ll be back before Sunday’s game against Columbus. Andreas Lilja will get another game in the lineup and will hopefully put on a performance similar to the one he had on Monday against the Ducks. - Matt
Tonight is the final game between these two Central Division rivals this season. The Wings lead the series 5-2, with wins November 10th (3-0), January 17th (5-3), March 6th (4-3 SO), March 13th (5-2), and March 14th (4-2). The Preds won the November 25th (6-2) and February 24th (4-3 OT) meetings.
Since the back-to-back home-and-home series with the Wings on March 13th and 14th, the Predators have posted a 3-1-1 record. After hosting the Wings on the 14th, they skated to a 3-2 win over Dallas on the 17th, but began a three-game swing out to Western Canada with a pair of . First, they were shutout by Vancouver on the 21st, and then they dropped a game in overtime to the Flames the next night. They turned things around after that, however, and finished the road trip with a 4-0 win over Edmonton on the 24th. They faced the Oilers again three days later at home and won again. The five games remaining on their schedule include tonight’s matchup with the Wings as well as games with Dallas, Chicago, St. Louis, and Colorado.
The Predators currently lead the West with 105 points, two more than the Wings’ 103. Tonight’s game will go a long way in determining whether or not the organization will be able to plan a Central Division Championship parade.
Tomas Vokoun should get the start, though Chris Mason is more than capable himself and may get the nod.
Nashville is currently missing Martin Erat (knee), Scott Hartnell (foot), Scott Nichol (thumb), and Steve Sullivan (back). Kimmo Timonen (upper body) left the game Tuesday night, but the Tennessean reports he’s “probable” for tonight.
The Wings are 1-2-2 since March 14th, with the losses coming in a four-game streak that only ended Monday night. Their last Western Canada swing ended with a pair of losses, first to Vancouver and then to Calgary. After that, they returned home and dropped a pair to Columbus and St. Louis, both in shootouts. Then, they righted the ship with an impressive 1-0 win over Anaheim on Monday at the Joe. Their six remaining games include tonight’s tilt with Nashville, a matchup with Dallas tomorrow night, and then home-and-home series with Columbus and Chicago.
Detroit stands at fourth place in the Conference, two points behind Nashville and a point ahead of Anaheim. Fourth place is probably the least desirable seeding at the moment.
Ansar Khan reported yesterday that Chris Osgood will be starting tonight, which is a definite surprise as this was meant to be Dominik Hasek’s first set of back-to-back games, not to mention the fact that Dom’s coming off a shutout and this game has enormous implications for the Division. An interesting move, but one that makes sense. As pointed out in the Free Press today, the Wings want to ensure the team’s health more than anything else, and Hasek’s health is incredibly important. In the meantime, Osgood is more than capable of giving the Wings the goaltending they need to win. Hasek will be in net tomorrow night against Dallas.
Brett Lebda (concussion) may play tonight, though that idea seems to be more a result of his optimism than any kind of doctor’s decision. He did practice with the team yesterday and has configured a helmet to fit his head with the cut, but his status depends on how he performs in the pre-game skate today.
For the first time since he was injured, Henrik Zetterberg (back) participated in his first full practice with the team yesterday. The Freep reports that he may be able to return this weekend (i.e. Sunday against Columbus). The team is well on its way to being fully healthy for the first time in weeks, as everyone on the roster practiced yesterday.
The most important thing for the Wings is that they elevate their play in these final games and therefore go into the playoffs hot. That’s why winning the Division would be so good for them, because to do so they’ll have to fight for it. They can be as healthy as possible come play time, but if they go into the postseason flat, they’ll be in more trouble than if they have an injury or two. I don’t mean to downplay health because that is a very important factor and without certain players in the lineup, they’ll be at a disadvantage, but I think how they’re playing is most important. Injuries can be made up for by others, but if the team isn’t showing up to play 60-minute games, it’s more difficult to eke out wins.
They had a great game against a very good Anaheim team on Monday, and they need to put up a similar performance tonight. Whereas the Wings are almost fully healthy, the Predators still have a number of key injuries and are therefore weakened. Nashville will be highly motivated, but the Wings should have an advantage. They won the back-to-back series in spite of injuries and ought to be able to do the same tonight when nearly fully heathy.
Matt, I read your page almost every day and appreciate the effort you and your cohorts put into it. I do have to disagree with your assessment that “Fourth place is probably the least desirable seeding at the moment.” Other than home ice advantage, which didn’t mean much to the boys last playoffs, playing Dallas or the Wild in the first round seems like a better match-up than facing the Flames or Sharks. Sure home ice is nice but perhaps its importance is overplayed? If they finished first today they would have to play ‘ol Kipper and his Flames (remember the last time they played an 8th seed from Canada?).
Just had to generate some dialogue about the upcoming Cup series. Thank you for your posts and keep them coming.
JB from firebettman.com
JB,
As far as “at the moment goes,” you’re right. When wrote this preview, the standings apparently weren’t updated: the Sharks were listed as 5th. I should have checked, but I assumed they were up-to-date, even if it was 5:00 AM.
But as for the other part of that statement, I don’t like 4th place because it’s very likely San Jose will finish 5th. I know Dallas is there now, but they aren’t a guarantee and neither is Minnesota. The best way for the Wings to avoid the Sharks is to finish 1st because there’s no way San Jose will fall to 8th.
Minnesota is as likely to win the Northwest Division and take the 3rd seed as they are to finish 7th. I doubt they’ll finish 5th.
I think the Wings’ best shot at getting past the first round is finishing first and playing Calgary. Of all the playoff bound Western teams, the Flames will probably be the coldest going in because they are furthest back and basically have the 8th seed locked up. The other teams are still jostling for position and will be playing top flight hockey until the final day of the season. The Flames aren’t the dominant force they were the last time we faced them and they certainly won’t be as hot as the Oilers were last year.
This is how I see the standings shaping up in the end (or, at least it’s how I hope they will):
1st: Detroit
2nd: Anaheim
3rd: Minnesota
4th: Nashville
5th: San Jose
6th: Dallas
7th: Vancouver
8th: Calgary
A couple upsets later (by San Jose and Dallas), the Wings would face Dallas in the second round, if they made it themselves. That wouldn’t be too bad at all. Still, they have to get past the first round first, so I shouldn’t be getting ahead of myself.
Yes, the Wings would have to play Calgary if they finished first. But Calgary is not the same team they were a few years ago. They will also not be the hottest team going into the playoffs, as the 8th seed usually is. Edmonton was easily the hottest team going in, and had the hottest goalie in the league. Kipper is still a great goaltender, but he’s not as unbeatable as he was. We played Calgary four times this season, going 2-2. We lost both games on the road. Goals were even in the series, 12-12.
As far as home ice advantage, I’d usually say that isn’t such a big deal. But this season? The Wings are 19-15-4 on the road. They are 27-4-7 at home. That’s quite the difference. So, Yeah, I’d love home ice advantage.
As far as fourth place being the worst spot to be, I’d have to agree with Matt. There are currently three teams with 98 points, with Dallas currently in 5th because of a game at hand. That will be a fight to the end, and the hottest team will win it. That would mean that once again, we would be facing the hottest team going into the playoffs.
I’m not normally a superstitous person, but all of this talk about preferring the coldest or weakest team in the playoffs has me reaching for my lucky rabbit’s foot.
I might get shot for suggesting this, but I would rather the team go up against Dallas or even (he wouldn’t say it, would he?) San Jose, simply because they wouldn’t be underestimating thier opponent. It killed us against the Kings in 01, the Ducks in 03, the Flames in 04, and the Oilers in 06. (Granted the Flames were a second round contest, but this theory of a weaker team still applies.)
Each time Detroit has been considered vastly superior, and each time the season ends way too early. If you need more evidence, just look at their sloppy play against Columbus and St. Louis, compared to the game they played vs. the Ducks this last week.
They need a little more fear and I don’t think Calgary is going to do that for them.
I think we’re all in agreement. I hope the race for the middle of the pack shakes out the way Matt has explained and the Wings finish first (overall would be nice!). Megan you are so right about road vs. home this year. Kipper still scares me, but I would hope even gravity will be on our side this year. Thanks to both of you for lifting my awareness!
JB
From what I’ve seen of Calgary lately, they look pretty darn good. They have a lot of guys who can score, some defense, physical players, and ol’ Kipper to top it off. And, they were pretty hot in March. It would also be a lot of travel for the Wings for a first round opponent.
I really hope we play Dallas or Minnesota. We’ve always had Turco’s number, and I just don’t think Dallas is that well-rounded of a team. Same for Minnesota. I think the Minnesota series we be more exciting, with two younger teams with lots of speed. I think the Wings’ experience and depth would pull them through the series without many problems, though.
Either way it shakes out, I can’t wait for the playoffs! It’s the most exciting time of the year…
GO WINGS!!!!!!!!!
Gabriel,
I’ve always preferred Dallas myself, but I’ve come to lean towards Calgary. I don’t know if the Wings will underestimate the Flames because they are still a very dangerous team.
I’m fearful of San Jose because whether or not the Wings take them serious as an opponent, the Sharks have owned them this season and I don’t think it would be pretty.
In any case, I get the feeling that the hype on this team isn’t as high as it has been in previous years. That, coupled with the fact that the West is so even in the top eight that anyone has a chance to win and everyone knows it, they shouldn’t have inflated ideas.
You make a good point about their habit of playing down to opponents. If they’re going to continue doing that, maybe a tougher first round would be better for them. Hmm. Is fear of Kiprusoff, Iginla, Phaneuf and Company enough? The biggest consideration for me is the travel.
I guess there is no “ideal” team this season. No matter who they play, it’ll be tough, for a variety of reasons. As long as they go into the postseason with open eyes and realistic assessments of their opponents, the Wings should be fine. If they go in complacent and expecting to coast through Round 1, we can expect a short run, no matter who they play.
I just want to get past the second round this year :(.
Anyway…Bertuzzi gets his first point as a Red Wing, and it’s a secondary assist.
Justin,
Yeah, that was a nice play by Pavel and Todd both. Bertuzzi continues to look real close to scoring, but he seems to have contracted the Calder Syndrome: working hard and getting chances, but not being able to finish.
A very unfortunate great play by Nashville on their goal. Not much chance for anyone to stop that.
Great assist by Bertuzzi on Datsyuk’s goal. Gotta love the deke around Zanon down low. Todd’s getting closer.
Nice play by Pavel, who put it in the net so smoothly on the flurry after that.
Great to see Datsyuk still continuing his great play. I have a feeling he won’t be disappearing in the post-season this year.
Yeah, he’s looked good recently. I agree with you about the playoffs. I have a hard time believing all this scoring will just stop once the regular season is over. Playing with Bertuzzi is good for him, since he has a bit more room to do his thing. Maybe it’ll be best to continue that in the postseason.